India sees trade surplus in June for 1st time in 18 years.

For the first time since January 2002, India has registered a trade surplus at $0.79 billion in June 2020 as compared to a deficit of $3.15 billion in May 2020 and $15.28 billion in June 2019. This is despite a contraction in exports for the fourth consecutive month which shrank 12.4 percent to $21.9 billion in June.

India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in April-June 2020-21* are estimated to be USD 101.02 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of (-) 25.92 per cent over the same period last year. Overall imports in April-June 2020-21* are estimated to be USD 89.31 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of (-) 45.10 per cent over the same period last year.

 EXPORTS ( Including Re- Exports)

Exports in June 2020 were USD 21.91 billion, as compared to USD 25.01 billion in June 2019, exhibiting a negative growth of (-) 12.41 per cent. In Rupee terms, exports were Rs. 1,65,898.85 crore in June 2020, as compared to Rs. 1,73,682.55 crore in June 2019, registering a negative growth of (-) 4.48 per cent.

Major commodity groups which have recorded positive growth during June 2020 

• Iron Ore (63.11%)
• Oil seeds (50.48%)
• Rice (32.72%)
• Oil meals (27.36%) 
• Spices (22.92%) 
• Other cereals (19.35%) 
• Organic & inorganic chemicals (19.06%) 
• Cereal preparations & miscellaneous processed items (13.8%)
• Fruits & vegetables (11.01%) 
• Drugs & pharmaceuticals (9.89%)
• Tobacco (3.56%) 
• Coffee (2.58%)

Major commodity groups which have recorded negative growth during June 2020

• Gems & jewellery (-50.06%) 
• Leather & leather products (-40.47%)
• RMG of all textiles (-34.84%) 
• Man-made yarn/fabs./made-ups etc. (-31.98%)
• Petroleum products (-31.65%)
• Cashew (-27.02%)
• Meat, dairy & poultry products (-25.88%)
• Handicrafts excl. hand-made carpet (-23.95%)
• Electronic goods (-22.52%)
• Jute mfg. including floor covering (-14.06%) 
• Ceramic products & glassware (-10.91%) 
• Carpet (-10.46%) 
• Marine products (-9.74%)
• Tea (-8.01%)
• Engineering goods (-7.5%) 
• Plastic & Linoleum (-4.4%) 
• Cotton yarn/fabs./made-ups, handloom products etc. (-3.83%) 
• Mica, Coal & other ores, minerals including processed minerals (-1.13%)

 

IMPORTS

Imports in June 2020 were USD 21.11 billion (Rs. 1,59,892.42 crore), which was 47.59 per cent lower in Dollar terms and 42.85 per cent lower in Rupee terms over imports of USD 40.29 billion (Rs 2,79,771.07 crore) in June 2019. Cumulative value of imports for the period April-June 2020-21 was USD 60.44 billion (Rs. 4,58,395.18 crore), as against USD 127.04 billion (Rs. 8,83,652.93 crore) during the period April-June 2019-20, registering a negative growth of (-) 52.43 per cent in Dollar terms (negative growth of (-) 48.12 per cent in Rupee terms).

Major commodity groups of import showing negative growth in June 2020 over the corresponding month of last year are:

 

Conclusion

• This would provide some support to the Indian rupee. 
• On the other hand, declining imports, an indicator of poor domestic demand.

Future Scenarios

Regional lockdowns in some Indian states, along with an uncertain employment scenario, 

Will keep consumption-related imports subdued.